Middle East Conflict Drives European Airfare Increases of Up to 76%
Middle East Conflict Drives European Airfare Increases of Up to 76%
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Airfares across Europe have risen sharply amid the war between Iran and the United States and escalating tensions in the Middle East, with ticket prices increasing by an average of 24% and by as much as 76% on some long-haul routes.
The surge has been driven by higher jet fuel prices and disruptions to flight routes. Fuel costs reportedly climbed from around $85 per barrel to between $150 and $209 in 2026, increasing their share of European airlines’ operating expenses from 25% to approximately 33%.
A joint analysis by Teneo and the BBC found that restrictions on Middle Eastern airspace have forced airlines to take longer, more expensive routes. Fares between London and Melbourne reportedly rose by 76%, while tickets between Hong Kong and London increased by 72%.
Airlines are responding with surcharges, fare increases and route reductions. Air France-KLM has introduced an additional €50 charge on long-haul economy tickets, while Lufthansa and IAG have adjusted services. Scandinavian Airlines has reportedly cancelled more than 1,000 domestic flights.
Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary has warned that the expiration of fuel-hedging contracts could add up to €2 billion in costs, potentially pushing ticket prices up by 15% to 20% in summer 2027.
Industry experts warn that higher fares could persist for 12 to 18 months, even if regional tensions ease, as fuel supplies and flight routes take time to stabilize.
