Soufan Center Warns Islamic State Is Expanding Its Footprint in the Sahel

Soufan Center Warns Islamic State Is Expanding Its Footprint in the Sahel
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A new Soufan Center report warns that Islamic State’s Sahel branch is consolidating territory, strengthening links with ISWAP in Nigeria and showing a growing ability to launch complex attacks on strategic targets.

The Islamic State’s affiliate in the Sahel has entered a new phase of operational maturity, raising concerns over its expanding influence across Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso and neighboring areas, according to a June 2026 issue brief by The Soufan Center.

The report says Islamic State in the Sahel Province, known as ISSP, has been active in the region for more than a decade but has recently moved from insurgent activity toward deeper territorial consolidation. Since 2022, the group’s broader strategic goal has been to strengthen connections between its Sahel branch and Islamic State West Africa Province, or ISWAP, based in Nigeria.

While al-Qaeda’s Sahel affiliate, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, remains the dominant jihadist force in the region, the report says ISSP has significantly expanded its capabilities since 2019. The group has increased its operational tempo, fought rival jihadist factions and local forces, and consolidated influence in parts of northeastern Mali.

The Soufan Center says the turning point came after the death of Islamic State Sahel founder Abu al-Walid al-Sahrawi in 2021. Rather than weakening the group, his death was followed by ISSP’s recognition as a separate Islamic State province and by a period of territorial expansion.

The report identifies the Ménaka region in northeastern Mali as a key base for ISSP. Although the town of Ménaka remains under government control with support from Russia’s Africa Corps, most of the surrounding region has reportedly been under ISSP influence since early 2023. This has given the group freedom of movement, the ability to move hostages across borders and space to develop new tactics.

The withdrawal of French forces from Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, along with the U.S. evacuation of its drone base in Agadez in 2024, further changed the security landscape. According to the report, these shifts created an effective safe haven for both ISSP and JNIM by reducing Western aerial and intelligence capabilities in the region.

The clearest sign of ISSP’s rising capabilities came in January 2026, when the group attacked Base 101 at Niamey International Airport in Niger. The report says the operation targeted one of Niger’s most protected military facilities and demonstrated advanced planning, command and control, drone use, mortar support and an organized withdrawal plan.

The brief also warns that the corridor between northwestern Nigeria and the Sahel is becoming increasingly important. It says ISSP and ISWAP are moving closer to linking their operational zones, allowing Islamic State networks to coordinate movement, transfer equipment and share expertise across the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin.