British AI startup wins over humans in international forecasting competition

British AI startup wins over humans in international forecasting competition
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A British AI startup named ManticAI has achieved a significant milestone by ranking eighth in the international Metaculus Cup forecasting competition, beating a majority of human participants, The Guardian reported. The system was co-founded by a former Google DeepMind researcher.

The competition required participants to forecast the likelihood of 60 different events, from political outcomes to environmental data. ManticAI’s system breaks down complex problems and assigns them to various machine-learning models, including OpenAI and Google.

While the best human forecasters still outperform AI, experts believe that AI’s prediction skills are rapidly improving. Toby Shevlane, a co-founder of ManticAI, suggests that AI forecasters can serve as an “antidote to groupthink” by offering predictions that often differ from the community average.

Experts like Philip Tetlock and Deger Turan note that AI still struggles with complex, interrelated forecasts and logical verification, where humans maintain an edge. The consensus from experts like Warren Hatch is that the most effective approach is a collaboration between humans and AI, rather than one replacing the other.