Somalia Faces Rising Threat as Al-Shabaab Advances Toward Mogadishu

Somalia Faces Rising Threat as Al-Shabaab Advances Toward Mogadishu
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Since February 2025, Somalia has witnessed a significant resurgence of the militant group al-Shabaab, which has captured numerous towns and villages surrounding the capital, Mogadishu, Yahoo News reported. This offensive has reversed years of progress made by the internationally recognized federal government, now increasingly confined to Mogadishu.

Despite intensified efforts by African peacekeepers and increased U.S. airstrikes, al-Shabaab’s territorial gains continue. The group has shifted tactics, reducing large-scale suicide bombings and promoting a narrative of providing Islamic law and order, contrasting with widespread government corruption. This approach has drawn uneasy comparisons to Afghanistan before the Taliban’s 2021 takeover.

Within Mogadishu, security has improved, with fewer attacks and visible signs of development. However, residents and businesspeople remain anxious about the future, uncertain whether the militants will reach the capital. The Somali army struggles to maintain control, facing low morale and ongoing political divisions within the federal government.

Experts warn that while a direct military threat to Mogadishu may not be immediate, al-Shabaab could exploit political instability, especially around upcoming elections, to further weaken government authority.