UN Labor Agency Warns Middle East War Could Cost Millions of Jobs Worldwide
UN Labor Agency Warns Middle East War Could Cost Millions of Jobs Worldwide
———————————————–
The International Labour Organization (ILO) has warned that the escalating conflict in the Middle East could inflict significant global economic damage, threatening millions of jobs, declining wages, and worsening living conditions far beyond the conflict zone.
In a report authored by the ILO’s chief economist Sangheon Lee, the United Nations agency cautioned that the ongoing war — particularly since the U.S.–Israeli conflict with Iran beginning on February 28 — is disrupting global labour markets through rising energy prices, transport bottlenecks, declines in tourism, and strain on supply chains. The agency said the extent of the impact will depend largely on the conflict’s trajectory but emphasized that labour market effects could persist for years.
The ILO projected that a 50% surge in oil prices above pre‑conflict averages could reduce global working hours by 0.5% in 2026, worsening to 1.1% in 2027. The agency estimated that the world economy could lose about 14 million full‑time jobs this year, rising to 43 million in 2027, alongside increases in global unemployment of 0.1 percentage points in 2026 and 0.5 points in 2027. Real wages are expected to fall by 1.1% this year and 3% next year amid inflation and higher living costs.
The report highlighted that the Middle East, Gulf states, and Asia‑Pacific are among the regions most at risk, warning that economic fallout in some sectors could surpass the impacts seen during the COVID‑19 pandemic. The ILO also drew attention to the vulnerability of migrant workers in Arab states, many of whom are employed in high‑risk sectors such as construction, manufacturing, transport, trade, and services.
Officials further noted that reduced demand for foreign labour in the Gulf could adversely affect remittances, a critical income source for millions of families in developing countries, potentially amplifying economic stress in labour‑exporting economies.
The ILO’s warning underscores the broad ripple effects of geopolitical conflict on global jobs, incomes, and economic stability, calling for coordinated international policy responses to mitigate the fallout.
