Millions of Homes in Southeast England Face Rising Subsidence Risk

Millions of Homes in Southeast England Face Rising Subsidence Risk
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Millions of homes in London, Essex and Kent could face a growing risk of subsidence as climate change brings hotter and drier summers, according to analysis by the British Geological Survey.

The study found that shrinking clay soils caused by dry weather may increasingly damage building foundations, particularly in London and parts of southeast England. Areas identified as most vulnerable include London boroughs such as Camden, Islington and Barnet, as well as Essex, Kent and land stretching from Oxford toward the Wash.

Scientists warned that climate-driven changes in rainfall and temperature could increase ground movement under homes. By 2070, around 500,000 properties could be affected under a low-emissions scenario, rising to more than 1.8 million under a medium-emissions pathway closer to current global trends.

The risk is especially high in London because of dense housing and soils prone to shrink-swell movement. Under the medium scenario, more than 26 percent of properties in the capital could be affected by 2070.

Subsidence can reduce property values and may require costly repairs, including underpinning, land stabilization, pipe replacement and vegetation management. The warning follows a record-warm spring in the UK in 2025 and £153 million in subsidence-related insurance claims in the first half of that year.