New Study Warns Current Fertility Rates Threaten Long-Term Human Survival

A recent study led by Takuya Okabe of Shizuoka University, published in PLOS One, challenges the widely accepted replacement fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman, suggesting it is too low to ensure long-term human survival, Earth.com reported.

The research argues that a rate closer to 2.7 is necessary to account for real-world factors like child mortality, sex ratio imbalances, and demographic randomness that can cause entire family lines to disappear over generations.

The study’s mathematical models show that populations with fertility rates below 2.7 face a high risk of extinction over time, even in large countries. For example, Japan’s fertility rate is 1.3, South Korea’s 0.87, and the U.S. is at 1.66, all well below the threshold.

Researchers also highlight that a female-biased birth ratio can improve survival odds by increasing future mothers. The findings emphasize the critical role of maintaining higher fertility rates to preserve cultural heritage, languages, and genetic diversity.

This research calls for policymakers to reconsider population goals to ensure humanity’s resilience and long-term sustainability.