Concerns grow over state school capacity amid private school policy change in England

State schools in England are facing space shortages in key year groups, raising concerns about their ability to accommodate an expected rise in students following Labour’s decision to apply VAT to private school fees, The Independent reported.

Figures show that at least 27 local authorities have no spare capacity in some year groups, with Years 7 and 8 being the most affected. Nottinghamshire faces the greatest shortfall, requiring 468 additional Year 7 places.

The removal of VAT exemptions for private schools, which took effect earlier this year, has increased fees by 20%, and additional financial changes are set to follow in April. Government projections estimate that around 37,000 students could leave the private sector, with 35,000 expected to transition to state schools.

While the Department for Education maintains that there are sufficient school places nationwide, critics argue that availability does not align with demand in many areas. Some councils, including Trafford, Warrington, and Sutton, are already oversubscribed in primary school years, prompting concerns about future secondary school admissions.

The Independent Schools Council warns that the policy could disrupt education for thousands of students, particularly those requiring specialist support or seeking places in faith-based, bilingual, or single-sex schools.

Government sources suggest that actual school capacity may be higher than recorded in official figures, with additional places created since the last survey. However, uncertainty remains over whether the state system can absorb the expected increase without significant disruption.