UN Expects Global Temperatures to Remain at Record Levels from 2026 to 2030
UN Expects Global Temperatures to Remain at Record Levels from 2026 to 2030
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The United Nations said on Thursday that global temperatures are expected to remain at record or near-record levels between 2026 and 2030, with a 75 percent chance that the five-year average will exceed pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The World Meteorological Organization said in a new report that the years from 2015 to 2025 were the 11 hottest ever recorded, and that this warming trend is expected to continue.
According to the WMO’s global climate forecast for the next one to ten years, prepared by the United Kingdom’s national weather service, there is an 86 percent chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record.
Leon Hermanson, the lead author of the report, said an El Niño event is expected in late 2026, increasing the likelihood that 2027 could set the next global heat record.
The WMO said projected five-year sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific point toward El Niño-like climate conditions, particularly in 2027 and 2028. El Niño is marked by warming waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and typically occurs every two to seven years, lasting between nine and twelve months.
The report, released as parts of Europe experience an exceptional May heatwave, said global temperatures are expected to remain very high over the next five years and close to historic peaks.
The WMO forecast that annual global surface temperatures from 2026 to 2030 will be between 1.3 and 1.9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, measured against the 1850–1900 average.
It said there is a 91 percent chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. That threshold was already temporarily crossed in 2024, when global surface temperatures were about 1.55 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels.
However, the report said it is highly unlikely, with a probability of less than one percent, that any of the next five years will exceed 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
The WMO clarified that the 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius limits mentioned in the Paris Agreement refer to long-term warming, usually measured over about 20 years. Temporary annual exceedances do not mean the long-term Paris goals are impossible, although such exceedances are expected to become more frequent as global warming approaches those thresholds.
The forecast also shows that Arctic warming will continue to exceed the global average. During the next five northern hemisphere winters, from November to March, Arctic temperatures are expected to be 2.8 degrees Celsius above the 1991–2020 average.
The report also projected lower Arctic sea ice concentrations in the Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk seas between March 2026 and March 2035, while rainfall is expected to be above average in high-latitude areas of the northern hemisphere during the next five winters.
