World Climate

World Likely to Temporarily Exceed 1.5°C Warming Limit by 2028, UN Warns

According to the latest predictions from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is an 80% chance that global average temperatures will surpass the 1.5°C warming limit set in the Paris Agreement for at least one of the next five years.

The WMO also estimates an 86% likelihood that at least one of these years will set a new temperature record, exceeding 2023 as the current warmest year on record.

The UN weather agency’s report projects the global mean near-surface temperature from 2024 to 2028 to range between 1.1°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels. It also estimates nearly a 50% chance that the average temperature over this five-year span could top the 1.5°C threshold.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the world is “playing Russian roulette with our planet” and called on G20 countries to take urgent action.

He stated that global CO2 emissions must decline by 9% annually until 2030 to keep the 1.5°C goal alive. Guterres emphasized that while temporarily exceeding 1.5°C does not mean the target is permanently lost, the battle to limit warming will be “won or lost in the 2020s.”

Guterres further emphasized that fossil-fuel companies are the “godfathers of climate chaos” and should be banned in every country from advertising akin to restrictions on big tobacco.

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