Global Food Prices Climb Again as Middle East Conflict Deepens, UN Warns of Wider Surge
Global Food Prices Climb Again as Middle East Conflict Deepens, UN Warns of Wider Surge
————————————————————-
Global food prices have continued to rise for a second consecutive month, with sharper increases recorded in March 2026 as the ongoing Middle East conflict drives up energy and fertilizer costs, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
More details in the following report:
Recent data shows the FAO Food Price Index rose by 2.4% month-on-month in March, reaching its highest level since September 2025 and standing about 1% higher than a year earlier.
The increase is being driven primarily by surging energy prices and disruptions to global supply chains linked to escalating tensions in the region. Analysts warn that if the conflict continues, global food prices could rise 15–20% in the first half of 2026, marking a significant inflationary shock.
A major factor behind the surge is the disruption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical shipping routes. The waterway handles roughly one-third of global fertilizer trade and a significant share of oil and gas supplies. Ongoing instability and partial closures have sharply reduced shipping flows—by as much as 75% in some cases—pushing up transport and input costs worldwide.
Fertilizer markets have been particularly affected. Prices for key inputs such as urea have surged by 30–40%, raising production costs for farmers and threatening future crop yields. This “double shock” of higher fuel and fertilizer prices is expected to reduce planting and lower agricultural output if the crisis persists.
According to FAO officials, the situation is not yet as severe as during the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, largely due to strong global harvests and relatively high stock levels. However, the outlook is becoming increasingly uncertain.
Experts warn that prolonged disruption in the Gulf could significantly worsen global food security, especially in developing countries that rely heavily on imported fertilizers and fuel.
Additional risks include climate factors such as El Niño, which could trigger droughts in key agricultural regions and further strain supplies.
