Study identifies sharp rise in extreme day-to-day temperature swings worldwide

Study identifies sharp rise in extreme day-to-day temperature swings worldwide
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Extreme day-to-day temperature swings have intensified markedly over the recent decades, particularly in low- and mid-latitude regions where most of the world’s population lives, according to a study published in the journal Nature.

The research, conducted by scientists from Nanjing University and the Chinese Academy of Sciences, analyzed climate data from 1961 to 2020 and projections extending to 2100. It found that sudden, large temperature fluctuations from one day to the next — a largely overlooked form of extreme weather — are becoming more frequent, more intense and larger in magnitude.

The study attributes the trend primarily to greenhouse gas emissions, with drier soils and increased variability in air pressure and soil moisture identified as key contributing factors. While high-latitude regions have experienced fewer of these swings, low- and mid-latitude areas in both hemispheres show a clear and accelerating increase.

Researchers warned that climate change is making daily weather far more volatile in warmer regions and that this volatility is expected to worsen through the end of the century.

The strongest increases were recorded in the western United States, eastern China, parts of South America and the Mediterranean basin. Over 10-year periods, intensity rises reached 11.1 degrees Celsius (20 degrees Fahrenheit) in the western US, 9.4C in eastern China, 12.4C in South America and 7.1C in the Mediterranean.

Record-breaking daily temperature swings were observed in 2022, with eastern China experiencing a 22.9C shift and the western US recording 20.3C. The study found that such record-level events are now occurring far more often than under historical climate conditions.

Those projections are drawn from assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations’ leading authority on climate science.

The findings suggest that sudden, hard-to-predict temperature fluctuations could become a defining feature of daily weather in many densely populated regions, posing growing challenges for public health systems, economies and food security worldwide.