Study Finds Majority of Global Coastal Settlements Moving Inland as Climate Risks Rise

Study Finds Majority of Global Coastal Settlements Moving Inland as Climate Risks Rise
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More than half of the world’s coastal settlements have shifted inland over the past three decades as climate-related risks intensify, according to a new international study using satellite nightlight data, Futurity.org reported. The research, published in Nature Climate Change, provides the first global evidence that coastal retreat is driven more by social and infrastructural vulnerability than by past exposure to hazards.

The study analyzed settlement patterns in 1,071 coastal regions across 155 countries between 1992 and 2019. It found that 56% of coastal regions retreated inland, 16% moved closer to the coast—including parts of Denmark such as Copenhagen—and 28% remained largely stable. Africa and Oceania recorded the highest levels of retreat, while several areas in Asia and South America continued expanding toward shorelines.

Researchers noted a significant adaptation gap in low-income regions, particularly in Africa and Asia, where communities often lack the resources to relocate and remain exposed to flooding and erosion. Retreat was most common in middle-income countries, which tend to have sufficient capacity to support relocation but not enough wealth to rely solely on protective infrastructure.

In contrast, wealthier regions often remain near or expand along coasts, relying on advanced defenses and strong institutions. Denmark exemplifies this trend, despite growing domestic debate over flood risks and coastal erosion. The study found that current vulnerability—not disaster frequency—best predicts retreat.

Statistical modeling showed that improvements in adaptive capacity and structural protection significantly reduce retreat rates. Researchers stressed the need for proactive coastal planning that accounts for social vulnerability to avoid future maladaptation as climate risks escalate.