Global Warning: Water Crisis Poised to Spark Conflicts of the 21st Century
International organizations are sounding the alarm that water scarcity is rapidly emerging as a global security crisis — one capable of toppling governments, driving mass migration, and igniting international conflicts.
Experts now regard the looming water shortage as a threat surpassing past oil crises and even traditional wars. Both UNESCO and the UN Water Commission warn that more than half of the world’s population already faces severe water stress — a situation projected to worsen.
The prediction of Ismail Serageldin, former World Bank Vice President, in 1995 that “the wars of the 21st century will be fought over water, not oil,” is becoming increasingly prophetic. A Mercy Corps report (May 2025) confirmed that this warning has become a grim reality.
One stark example: Kabul, Afghanistan, could become the first major city to lose all underground water reserves by 2030, a development that could displace millions and plunge the country into unprecedented crisis.
Globally, nearly 4 billion people experience severe water shortages each year, according to UNESCO. Between 2015 and 2021, worldwide water withdrawals rose by 93 billion cubic meters, while depletion rates of aquifers increased by 2.8%, underscoring the growing security risks.
The Middle East sits at the epicenter of the crisis. Countries such as Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE consume over 80% of their renewable water resources, while in Africa and Latin America violent conflicts over water are intensifying. In Africa’s Sahel region alone, more than 450 clashes between farmers and herders over water access occurred in the past five years.
Adding to the threat is the “militarization of water.” The Pacific Institute reports that the use of water as a weapon of war has surged by 500% since 2000. Israel’s repeated cuts to water supplies in Gaza and the West Bank, condemned as “criminal” by the UN Human Rights Office, are a stark example. In Iraq, oil pipeline explosions in 2016 polluted the Tigris River, creating a humanitarian crisis for millions.
Yet, history shows cooperation is possible. Over 3,600 water treaties and 120 regional organizations exist to manage shared water resources. Still, climate change and intensifying droughts leave one urgent question unanswered: Will the 21st century be defined by water wars?
