Study Warns Global Warming Is Accelerating and Could Exceed 1.5°C Before 2030

Study Warns Global Warming Is Accelerating and Could Exceed 1.5°C Before 2030
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A new scientific study warns that global warming has accelerated significantly since around 2015, raising concerns that the world could exceed the 1.5°C temperature limit set by the Paris Climate Agreement before 2030.

The research, conducted by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, analyzed five major global temperature datasets, including those from NASA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth, and ERA5.

After removing the influence of short-term natural factors such as El Niño, volcanic eruptions, and solar activity, researchers identified a statistically significant increase in the rate of warming. Over the past decade, global temperatures have risen by about 0.35°C per decade, compared with less than 0.2°C per decade between 1970 and 2015.

Stefan Rahmstorf, the study’s lead author, said the adjusted data show a warming acceleration with more than 98% statistical confidence since 2015 across all datasets examined.

The study also found that even after adjusting for natural influences, the years 2023 and 2024 remain among the warmest years on record since modern temperature measurements began in 1880.

While the research did not focus on the specific causes of the acceleration, scientists noted that climate models allow for rising warming rates over time. Researchers warned that if the current pace continues, the 1.5°C global warming threshold could be surpassed before 2030.

Experts say the speed of future warming will largely depend on how quickly countries reduce carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels to net zero.