Alarming Study: 1.5°C Global Warming May Not Prevent Catastrophic Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise

A new international study warns that even if global warming is limited to the widely accepted 1.5°C target, significant melting of Earth’s major ice sheets could still occur, leading to substantial sea level rise and forcing mass migration from coastal areas, Anadolu Agency reported.

The research, published in Communications Earth and Environment, analyzed satellite data, climate models, and historical records to determine a “safe limit” for the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Scientists found that even at the current 1.2°C warming, rapid ice sheet retreat could be triggered. These ice sheets hold enough freshwater to raise global sea levels by about 213 feet.

Since the 1990s, ice loss has quadrupled, with approximately 370 billion tons melting annually, making it the primary driver of sea level rise. The rate of annual sea level increase has doubled in the last three decades.

The study highlights an existential threat to an estimated 230 million people living in low-lying coastal areas. Even minor ice loss could drastically reshape coastlines, displacing hundreds of millions. Projections suggest sea levels could rise by 0.4 inches per year by the end of the century, impacting today’s youth. The authors suggest that to prevent rapid ice sheet collapse, global warming needs to be limited closer to 1°C.