Rakhine State at Crossroads: AA Consolidation, Geopolitical Tensions, and Rohingya Plight
Myanmar’s Rakhine State, the historical homeland of the Rohingya, is experiencing a significant upheaval as the Arakan Army (AA) increasingly asserts control over critical border regions adjacent to Bangladesh, an article by George Town University reported. This shift follows the breakdown of Myanmar’s 2023 ceasefire, leaving the Rohingya, already a severely persecuted minority, caught in escalating violence.
The AA now controls approximately 271 km of the Bangladesh-Myanmar border, including Maungdaw, a town with a Rohingya majority. Cross-border shelling incidents have extended into Bangladesh, causing civilian casualties and exacerbating Dhaka’s challenge in managing over a million Rohingya refugees in Cox’s Bazar. Reports indicate intensified forced recruitment by both the Myanmar military and Rohingya armed groups such as ARSA, creating a dangerous “camp-border nexus” characterized by exploitation and violence.
Rakhine’s strategic importance, serving as a corridor for China’s Belt and Road Initiative via the Kyaukphyu port and India’s Act East Policy, has drawn in both China and India, who are now engaging with the AA. India recently hosted talks with the AA in New Delhi. This focus on economic interests by major powers appears to sideline efforts for Rohingya repatriation, despite Myanmar’s claim of having verified 180,000 refugees for return—a prospect deemed doubtful amid the ongoing conflict.
Bangladesh is grappling with increasing pressure from refugee inflows and dwindling international aid. Proposed solutions include multi-track diplomacy with ASEAN, the UN, and regional actors to curb armed group activities, fostering dialogue between the Rohingya and the Arakan Army for local reconciliation, and establishing a dedicated task force for crisis coordination. With the AA’s growing influence challenging state authority and global attention waning, the Rohingya’s stateless existence remains deeply intertwined with Myanmar’s civil war and the maneuvering of great powers.
