Sudan on Edge: RSF Advances Raise Fears of Disintegration Amid Ethnic Tensions and Humanitarian Collapse

Sudan on Edge: RSF Advances Raise Fears of Disintegration Amid Ethnic Tensions and Humanitarian Collapse
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Sudan is facing a deepening political and military crisis as advances by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have triggered renewed fears over the country’s territorial integrity. Analysts warn that ongoing ethnic competition and a weakening balance of military power could push Sudan toward collapse.

More details in the following report:

According to the latest reports, the RSF — in ongoing conflict with the national army — has reportedly seized control of parts of western Sudan and sections of Kordofan, and is advancing toward northern Kordofan. These regions are seen as strategically critical, containing key routes toward the capital, Khartoum. Observers suggest continued RSF advances could significantly weaken the army and shift power dynamics.

Political analysts say that ethnic rivalries have intensified and are now a primary driver of the war. The fall of El Fasher in Darfur is described as a watershed, entrenching fragmentation in western Sudan and raising the likelihood of further divisions along political and ethnic lines.

Sudan’s armed forces reportedly suffer from ammunition and arms shortages, eroding their ability to counter RSF advances. Meanwhile, mediation efforts by regional powers — sometimes referred to as the “quartet” — have so far failed to curb the fighting; some experts argue these efforts may be inadvertently deepening the crisis.

Amid the fighting, a humanitarian catastrophe is unfolding. Residents in conflict zones are enduring severe shortages of food, medicine, and basic services. Thousands of families have been displaced as insecurity forces them from their homes. Aid agencies warn that if the conflict continues, the humanitarian situation could deteriorate drastically.

Although independent, up-to-date international reporting on the exact scale and locations of RSF gains remains limited, multiple credible sources have documented the growing humanitarian emergency and instability. The situation underscores a grim reality: without urgent stabilization — militarily and politically — Sudan risks further fragmentation, collapse of state authority, and widespread human suffering.