Study Finds Life Expectancy Gains in Wealthy Nations Have Stalled Since Mid-20th Century

Study Finds Life Expectancy Gains in Wealthy Nations Have Stalled Since Mid-20th Century
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A new international study has found that the sharp rise in life expectancy achieved across wealthy nations in the early 20th century has slowed significantly, with no generation born after 1939 expected to reach an average age of 100. The research was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Using data from 23 high-income, low-mortality countries, the team applied six independent models to forecast long-term mortality trends. The study found that between 1900 and 1938, life expectancy in wealthy nations increased by about five and a half months per generation.

However, for generations born after 1939, that rate fell to just two and a half to three and a half months per generation. Researchers said earlier gains were largely driven by reductions in infant and child mortality through medical advances, sanitation improvements, and rising living standards.

With childhood mortality now extremely low, future progress depends on extending longevity among older adults — a challenge that may not yield the same rapid improvements. The researchers said the slowdown could have major implications for retirement systems, healthcare planning, and social policy in aging populations worldwide.