Experts Warn Floods in Pakistan Are Becoming the “New Normal,” Urge Shift from Relief to Adaptation
Northern Pakistan is facing devastating flash floods that have killed over 460 people and displaced thousands, with the country experiencing what experts describe as a “new normal” of increasingly frequent and severe climate disasters. Despite contributing less than 1% to global greenhouse gas emissions, Pakistan ranks among the world’s 10 most climate-vulnerable countries.
Since mid-August, torrential rains, flash floods, and cloudbursts have ravaged northern regions including Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan. The northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has been particularly hard hit, with swollen rivers, mudslides, and collapsing homes causing widespread destruction. Nationwide, nearly 800 deaths have been recorded from rain-triggered floods and landslides since late June.
Ecologist Rafi-ul-Haq, based in Karachi, emphasized that floods are no longer rare events but routine shocks linked to climate change, global warming, and melting glaciers. He noted that human factors such as unplanned urbanization, deforestation, blocked waterways, weak governance, and inadequate emergency responses contribute to about 60% of the damage caused.
Ahmed Kamal, a flood management expert in Islamabad, highlighted shifting monsoon patterns and rising temperatures accelerating glacier melt in Gilgit-Baltistan, which has seen unprecedented heat and reduced snowfall. Kamal also pointed to increased cyclone activity along Pakistan’s coast due to warming Arabian Sea temperatures and decades of deforestation reducing natural flood buffers.
Experts argue Pakistan must prioritize adaptation and resilience over emissions cuts, focusing on restoring wetlands, mangroves, and floodplains, clearing illegal construction on riverbeds, improving urban drainage with green infrastructure, and supporting flood-resilient agriculture with insurance and social safety nets. Low-cost measures like pre-monsoon drain cleaning, early warning systems, and community shelters could save lives immediately.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif acknowledged “criminal negligence” by past governments for allowing construction on riverbeds and watersheds and pledged to clear encroachments. Climate governance expert Imran Saqib Khalid warned that without urgent action, Pakistan faces food insecurity, water shortages, and mass migration, while urging international cooperation for climate finance.
Despite the challenges, experts remain cautiously optimistic that scientifically informed adaptation strategies can mitigate much of the devastation ahead.
