Russia’s Grain Harvest Shrinks Amid Heatwave and Climate Shift

Russia’s Grain Harvest Shrinks Amid Heatwave and Climate Shift
………………

Russia is facing a sharp drop in grain output this year due to extreme heat and shifting climate patterns, bne IntelliNews reported. The country’s 2025 grain harvest is projected at 130 million metric tonnes—down 20 million tonnes from its record 2023 crop. Experts say the climate crisis is pushing Russia’s fertile grain belt northward, with southern regions suffering under worsening drought.

The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) expects export levels to remain steady, supported by global demand and a weak ruble, but analysts warn that weather-related disruptions could impact future projections. The Krasnodar and Rostov regions—home to Russia’s rich black earth—have seen yield declines of up to 25%, with drought and spring frosts damaging crops.

Emergency measures have been declared in 37 districts, while losses in Krasnodar alone are estimated at over $500 million. Meanwhile, northern regions like Tambov and Ryazan have shown improved soil productivity, suggesting a long-term shift in arable land. Stavropol is expected to post record wheat output, potentially overtaking drought-stricken Rostov as the top producer.

Russia’s potato sector is also in crisis, with retail prices tripling over the past year. President Putin has acknowledged the shortage, while neighboring Belarus faces similar challenges, leading to public criticism and failed price controls.

Despite ongoing losses, experts say Russia’s reduced grain output will still meet domestic needs and support exports—though food inflation and climate pressures are likely to remain major concerns in the years ahead.